After more than three years of war in Ukraine, reality continues to impose itself stubbornly over propaganda. The Western imperialist bloc, headed by Washington and sheepishly followed by the European Union, is losing the war.
In order not to face the catastrophic blow of acknowledging defeat, they remain determined to fight “to the last Ukrainian”, while spreading instability all over the world. The latest example is the possibility of an open war in the Middle East with incalculable consequences.
The reactionary international, headed by the fascistoid Trump and the Nazi-zionist Netanyahu, is ready to pour gasoline on the world and set it on fire rather than accept defeat in its dispute for world hegemony with the Sino-Russian bloc.
Situation on the Ukrainian front
The reality of the frontline shows a clear result: Russia's progress in all directions. This reality is distorted, hidden or misrepresented in the Western bourgeois press; and sometimes seasoned with Ukrainian “war exploits”.
Last June 1st, there was a spectacular Ukrainian attack with remote-controlled drones on five Russian air bases, the so-called operation Spider's Web. For several days we had specials, graphics, infographics..., explaining in detail this operation “prepared for a year and a half” and “worthy of James Bond”. An operation that, according to the Washington Post, caused damage to... 13 Russian planes. Apart from the spectacular nature of its preparation and execution, what is important is its final balance and its consequences on the development of the war.
The Russian bombing campaign that had been going on since the end of May has not only not been reduced, but multiplied. This is not a detail, in the last weeks the Ukrainian interception rate has ostensibly decreased, revealing the limits of its anti-aircraft defense directly supported by Washington and NATO. Limits that will be further degraded by the relocation of U.S. Patriot batteries and missiles from Ukraine to Israel.
On the ground, Russian troops conquered 335 km2 in April and 720 km2 in May, in one of the biggest advances since late 2022. They ended the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk and are repulsing a new incursion into the Russian town of Tetkino, again at the cost of losses among Kiev's best troops and vehicles.
Russia is expanding attacks on the Ukrainian second line of defense. They are opening new fronts, which are not only forcing the increasingly limited Ukrainian forces to stretch, but causing deep penetrations into new sectors, as is happening in Sumy.
At a cost of much blood, the Russian command has learned and adapted more successfully than the Ukrainian-Western command to the type of war being fought in Ukraine. The Kiev-Washington axis cannot offer much more than occasional drone strikes on Russian ground, increasingly unsuccessful threats against the Kerch bridge in Crimea, and “spectacular” actions such as Operation Spider's Web. But with propaganda operations Washington is not going to avoid defeat in Ukraine.
Ukraine and negotiations with Russia
A round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia began in Istanbul on May 16. Moscow presented its conditions for a cease-fire. A 31-point memorandum summarizing its objectives prior to its intervention in Ukraine and now demanding on the basis of the outcome of three years of war: the recognition as Russian territory of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaporiyia and Crimea; and the effective neutrality of Ukraine, i.e. it remains outside NATO and the delivery of Western arms and intelligence ceases.
The Ukrainian response was obviously negative. Neither Washington wants to acknowledge defeat nor Zelenski is willing to step down from the only option that keeps him in his position: continuation of the war. In fact, one of the Russian demands, in addition to guaranteeing their rights to the Russian-speaking minority, is that elections be held in Ukraine. A second round held on June 2 yielded even fewer results.
The situation for the regime in Kiev is becoming increasingly critical. To the Russian advance on the front must be added the increasingly low morale, both among soldiers and the civilian population. Videos of recruiters abducting military-age men in Ukrainian cities are daily, with one difference: more and more people are seen confronting the uniformed kidnappers by getting the “recruits” to flee.
At the front, the outlook for soldiers is increasingly bleak. According to a report in El Pais on June 16: "the average period in which soldiers are on the front line is 40 days, even more. In 2022, the rotation of the military did not exceed one week".
Since the beginning of the war we have witnessed in the West a constant intoxication about what was happening on the front: Russian troops were bloodthirsty orcs slaughtering civilians -which does not correspond to official figures-; their missiles, ammunition, vehicles, etc... are about to run out since the war began, are about to run out since the first month of war; or their infantry is basically meat sent to the mincer in the trenches and abandoned on Ukrainian soil when they die, which has translated into dreadful figures of hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties in the bourgeois press.
There is one shattering fact that crushes this propaganda. Between November 2024 and March this year, Moscow and Kiev organized on six occasions an exchange of bodies of fallen soldiers. The sum of these six exchanges yields the figures of 3,742 corpses of Ukrainian soldiers for 257 Russian fallen. Shortly thereafter, at the May 16 Istanbul meeting, Russia pledged to deliver 6,000 corpses to Ukraine. One month later, Russia has handed over 6,060 bodies to Ukraine, receiving 78 in return, and has expressed its readiness to hand over another 2,239.
There is no aspect of this war - the fighting, the progress, the morale among the troops and among the population... - that offers any data to suggest that Russia can be defeated.
The role of the European Union
The performance of the EU regarding the Ukrainian war in the last weeks has been the graphic image of decadence. The Brussels bureaucracy, with Von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas at its head, behaves like elements out of the Human Resources department of an investment fund that humble themselves before Trump's latest witticism.
A few weeks ago, the main point of the propaganda of Macron, Starmer, Merz and company was the creation of a European military force to intervene in Ukraine, with the excuse that after Ukraine Putin will invade the whole of Europe. We have been bombarded with martial speeches, of increased military spending and preparation of the population for war.
A propaganda whose purpose is not to confront Putin but the enemy within, and to position itself in a class struggle marked by political polarization, the massive mobilizations against the genocide in Gaza and also by the electoral advances of the extreme right.
In a few days, as the situation in Gaza deteriorated dramatically, they turned a new direction. They took advantage of the impact on the population of a live genocide to hide the talk of sending troops to Ukraine. In the height of hypocrisy, even Macron and Borrell - who has been responsible for EU foreign policy during the first 14 months of Israeli massacres - went so far as to use the word “genocide” to refer to Gaza.
A few days later they have taken a new turn, squaring up again to Trump and Netanyahu to support the bombing on Iran. In the words of Von der Leyen: "Israel has the right to defend itself. Iran is the main source of regional instability".
As an independent entity, the EU is irrelevant on the world stage. The Ukrainian war started precisely because of Washington's pressure to break the growing ties between the EU and China-Russia. From the very first moment, the submission of Brussels as a whole, and each European bourgeoisie separately - starting with the German one - to Washington's designs has been total. Even if this has meant a disaster for the European economy.
Brussels has spearheaded the economic attack against Moscow by launching 17 sanctions packages. While Putin's regime has reorganized the economy - with the key support of Beijing, but also of many former allies of Washington - and disciplined a part of Russian capitalists who did not look favorably on the Ukrainian war, what has Brussels offered? To freeze 600 billion from Russian capitalists, making it easier for them to place themselves under the baton of the Russian state.
The Russian economy has grown by 4.3% in 2024 - after growing by 3.6% in 2023 - partly due to the increase in military spending but also due to the good performance of domestic demand. That is the concrete balance of the role played in these years by the EU lackeys.
What will Trump do?
Beyond Trump's statements, denials, threats and nonsense, the reality is concrete. Since his inauguration in January, the shipment of U.S. military equipment to Kiev has been frozen. In February, Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth deemed it “unrealistic” for Ukraine to join NATO and return to the 2014 borders. And in June the same Hegseth did not attend the meeting of the Contact Group, the body set up to manage military aid to Ukraine; the first absence of the US Secretary of State since the war began.
Washington's alternative to acknowledging defeat in Ukraine is opening a new front in the Middle East, with a savage provocation that could have dreadful consequences, for the region and for the whole world. It may be just another of his bluster, but Trump publicly threatening to assassinate the highest Iranian authority gives an idea of what we are up against.
At the same time, he continues to maintain an image of closeness to Putin. In fact, they have had two telephone conversations in recent weeks, after Operation Spider's Web and after the start of the Israeli bombings. Already in the first conversation they addressed the negotiations with Iran, an example of how all geopolitical hot spots are interconnected in the framework of the battle for world hegemony.
In the face of Trump's Middle East challenge, Russia and China's attitude so far has been absolutely timid. The same as that maintained in the face of the genocide against the Palestinian people. This has very material roots: both are capitalist regimes that are disputing global hegemony with the US. Yes, Iran is a strategic partner for Moscow and Beijing, but Israel is also becoming a relevant trading partner, and in any case the last thing they want is a regional war that would jeopardize the magnificent business, investment and trade agreements they have with the Gulf monarchies, which are absolutely key for China. These are the reasons that dictate their moves, and not the defense of the interests of the Palestinian people or the Arab peoples subjugated by their governments.
But the problem is that regardless of what Russia or China would like, Washington is stretching the situation to the limit and this may sooner or later force its adversaries to intervene to stop the attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime of the Mullahs.
The struggle for world hegemony has unleashed trade wars and absolutely destructive conventional wars. We return to a history already known and whose results were catastrophic for the world working class. No diplomacy will stop this barbarism. No UN resolution, no international convention will prevent this human carnage and the misery that accompanies it. War and militarism will only be swept away by the revolutionary action of the workers and oppressed peoples.
